Over the last 10 years, there have been countless examples of ingredients that were once deemed innocuous to consumers but later emerged as villainous: azodicarbonamide (the so-called “yoga mat ingredient”) found in fast food chains like Subway’s bread; talc in J&J’s baby powder; glyphosate in Bayer’s Round-Up. Most recently, PFAs, the “forever chemicals,” that have been found in more than 50 percent of cosmetics.
 
The list of potentially harmful ingredients continues to grow, and we’ve all seen what impact even a single scientific study, news article or blog post can have on a company or brand’s reputation and bottom line. 
 
But what if aforementioned companies had foreseen the potential danger imposed by using or keeping these harmful ingredients in their formulas? What if they’d been able to predict these emerging crises before they escalated?
 
Spark and Spread Patterns 
 
We all recognize the need and opportunity to leverage big data from online sources. Whether from social media, news outlets, forums and blogs, online document repositories, academic resources, or more, there is a vast amount of market, scientific and consumer data to tap into; however, it’s difficult to mine that unstructured data in a thoughtful and systemic manner. Innovative companies are looking to use the power of big data to predict outcomes that help mitigate risk and make confident decisions. An example of this: providing the ability to predict when an ingredient might become a villain in consumers’ eyes. 
 
The question is: can you identify these potential issues early enough to take action? Certainly, by the time the public becomes aware of a harmful ingredient’s effect on human health or the environment, it’s too late. Companies need proactive solutions that will identify a potential villain ingredient before an issue becomes a disaster. 
 
By analyzing past villain ingredients with an eye on understanding how current products may be impacted, our team has discovered that villain ingredients emerge following a spark and spread pattern. 
 
What is a Spark? 
 
A spark is any document, event or action that later incites extensive interest from the public, a governing body, an organization, etc. It is often the first hint that an ingredient may be harmful to humans, pets or the environment. It’s typically grounded in science—an academic study, a patent or patent application, a grant, a clinical trial, a lawsuit, action taken by the FDA, the EU or other regulatory body—and may have been published by a major news outlet, a Twitter handle, picked up by a popular blog, or the like.  
 
The recent news cycle surrounding “forever chemicals” was sparked by the peer-reviewed study published in Environmental Science and Technology in June of 2021.  
 
How Does a Spark Lead to a Spread?
 
Most sparks die before they make any impact on consumer habits, but some ignite and spread. With this spread comes the possibility of changing consumer perception and buying behavior. 
 
A strong spark will make its way through influential channels, what we call a Spread. An example of this is when a scientific study or regulatory action is referenced in a news article, which then goes “viral” across the internet and social media. The more momentum the spread gains, the more chances a company has of losing consumer trust and, ultimately, sales. 
 
The Environmental Science and Technology publication is a great example of a spark that spreads: outlets such as the Guardian, Insider and Healthline (among many others) quickly published stories that lead to countless online conversations on Twitter, LinkedIn, etc. In late July, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky announced four separate bills, known collectively as the Safer Beauty Bill Package to give the Federal government more regulatory control over cosmetics and personal care products. 
 
The EPA has known about Forever Chemicals since 1998. In 2019, both the House and the Senate passed Defense Spending bills that included provisions to limit the amount of PFAS into drinking water and in military food packaging.  Had companies been actively tracking the conversation, regulatory action, scientific studies around these products, it’s possible that they may have begun reformulating prior to this summer. 
 
There’s a degree of risk in many decisions relating to consumer products, and reformulations of beloved cosmetics are no different.  However, keeping potentially harmful ingredients in products also poses a great risk. 
 
It is said that Risk = Probability * Consequence. 
 
Even though future consequences are not always readily apparent, it’s easy to imagine potential disastrous outcomes. For example, the consequence of using a villain ingredient might be millions of dollars product recall, and packaging changes, billions of dollars in lost market cap or worse, the health and safety of consumers. The challenging part of that risk equation is understanding the probability of an ingredient emerging as a villain in consumers’ eyes. 
 
How to Use this Model to Your Advantage?

1. Track your ingredients for potential villains. Think beyond social media posts. Publications, new scientific findings, regulatory actions, and patent and grant awards happen daily.  It’s important to take advantage of the big data the Internet provides and move beyond social listening into proactive monitoring of the various scientific and market publications that happen regularly.
    
2. Identify which sparks require your action and attention. Acting on every spark is not feasible, nor does it make sense, as some are harmless. It’s important to identify which sparks will lead to a spread and when you should act. 

Mark Jeffreys